### How many bottle caps?

I ran across the following problem and couldn't resist. The original inspiration was a Mountain Dew promotion.

Consider the following game: Suppose you have N bottle caps, each with the name of a different sports team on the underside. You win if you draw (with replacement) three of the same team. Note that a win is impossible for less than three draws and is guaranteed by the 2N+1 draw. For n draws, the probability of having some particular set of caps , , follows a Multinomial distribution:

The probability of not winning by the n'th draw is the sum of all the probabilities with , , and . Now, permutations of the vector are equally likely, and the number of possible non-winning vectors that have teams with two drawn caps is

Then, the probability of not winning by the n'th draw, given that there are k teams with two caps, is

Thus, the probability of winning on the (n+1)'th draw is

If there are 30 teams, the chance of winning on the third draw is 0.1%. It takes about 18 draws to have a 50% chance of winning, 27 draws to have a 90% chance of winning, and 38 draws to have a 99.9% chance of winning.

## 2 comments:

Thanks for this Michael!

Having read this, I feel a lot better about not being able to solve this problem during the few hours I whiled away tackling it with a pencil, paper, and my intuition.

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